Evidence, argued in the open.
Notes on method, instruments and field observation from the practice. Each piece shows the reasoning a decision-grade deliverable is built on — the same standard, made legible.
The chokepoint premium — where an energy shock's rent actually lands
When a maritime chokepoint like Hormuz seizes, the rent does not accrue to the molecule (the gas price, which spikes and relaxes) but to whoever holds firm transit...
LNG under the Hormuz shock — reading the commissioning window
The commercial-operation-date (COD) declaration that ends LNG commissioning is a value-capture switch the seller largely controls; reading the engineering record — commissioning logs, performance-test dates, repair timelines against...
LNG under the Hormuz shock — a structural read
A structural read of the VG/Hormuz LNG picture — the contractual boundary, the timing of value capture, and where the rent of the shock actually lives.
La ventaja no es la inteligencia artificial: por qué un motor de desarrollo de negocio se construye iterando con gobernanza
La ventaja competitiva de un motor de desarrollo de negocio AI-native no está en las herramientas de inteligencia artificial —disponibles para cualquiera que las compre— sino en el...
The Green Paradox: Why Energy Capital Follows the Narrative Instead of the Cost
Energy capital is increasingly allocated by narrative — "green" or "anti-green" — rather than by what each technology actually costs in its specific context. Corporate greenwashing is the...
Capital Intensity Is a Symptom: Execution Structure and the Typology Owners Don't Buy
Owners rank capital projects by breakeven — the wrong first question. Execution structure (concentration vs atomisation) determines capital intensity, governability and recoverability. The objective is not to minimise...
La interfaz que nadie declaró es el riesgo que nadie valoró
La complejidad —y el riesgo— de un proyecto de capital no la define el número de componentes, sino el número de interfaces vivas entre ellos. Los proyectos fallan...
Why 70-90% of EPC/EPCM Projects Fail — and What Contract Structure Actually Controls
Most EPC/EPCM project failures are attributed to execution — cost overruns, schedule slippage, quality deficiencies. The actual structural driver is contractual typology: the choice of service model, made...
Running Is Not Testing — and Testing Is Not Defending: Three Layers in Institutional Risk Management
Operation (automated by AI or otherwise), prospective testing (stress tests, scenario simulation), and sustainment under adversarial contradiction are three distinct layers in institutional risk management. Accelerating the first...
Operar no es desafiar — y desafiar no es sostener: tres capas distintas en la gestión del riesgo institucional
Operación (automatizada por IA o no), pruebas prospectivas (stress testing, simulación), y sostenimiento bajo contradicción adversarial son tres capas distintas en la gestión del riesgo institucional. Acelerar la...
From Signal to Defensible Action — Why Most Risk Analysis Fails Under Scrutiny
Detection, response, and evidentiary discipline are three distinct layers in institutional-risk decision-making, not graduations of a single capability. The cost of confusing them is not academic — it...
Turning Risk Perception Into Investment Opportunity
Once institutional risk is detected, three financial and legal instruments — short selling, put options, and litigation finance — allow disciplined stakeholders to act on that information within...
Institutional Capture: A Quantitative Framework for Detection
Institutional capture in state-owned enterprises follows a signal structure detectable with four observable indicators (G1 / S1 / F1 / P3) and an explicit composite formula, giving boards,...